Editor’s note: This is the first of an occasional series of essays that Perspectives will publish featuring analyses from East Asia of the laws and policies of the new US administration.
By Railla Puno
Over the past four years, Donald Trump repeatedly derided President Biden’s energy policies as “industry-killing, jobs-killing, pro-China, and anti-American.” On the day he was inaugurated for his second term, President Trump followed through on his campaign promise to execute a radical pivot in US energy policy, including overturning support for renewable energy in favor of the proliferation of fossil fuels and implementing regulatory rollbacks. Through an Executive Order called “Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements,” Trump authorized the immediate withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement and from “any agreement, pact, accord, or similar commitment made under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).” He also ordered his government to immediately cease or revoke any financial commitment under the UNFCCC.
While national politics are primarily a national matter, the impact of the Trump presidency on global climate action cannot be underestimated. After all, the US has been the highest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs), accounting for 24 percent of global cumulative emissions from 1750 to 2022. As of 2024, US remains the second-highest emitter of GHGs after China, accounting for 12.6 percent of global emissions. The finance and mitigation implications of Trump’s presidency will affect millions of people worldwide when we are at a crucial juncture for climate action and at high risk of surpassing the 1.5-degree Celsius goal of the Paris Agreement. If other wealthy nations do not step up with counter-actions, the already rising global toll of deaths, food and water insecurity, cross-border migration, and social inequality will only worsen.
If other wealthy nations do not step up with counter-actions, the already rising global toll of deaths, food and water insecurity, cross-border migration, and social inequality will only worsen.
On the financial side, billions of dollars will be lost for global climate action, including the development and transfer of green technologies and support for developing countries that contributed least to global warming but often are most affected. In 2021, President Biden committed international climate finance of over $11.4 billion per year by 2024. In 2023, during COP 28, Biden also committed $3 billion for the Green Climate Fund’s second replenishment. Additionally, $125 million was appropriated for the Clean Technology Fund, $150.2 million for the Global Environment Facility, $49.3 million for the Montreal Protocol Multilateral Fund, and $14 million for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These are pledges that the international community is set to lose with the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and UNFCCC.
Moreover, losing US contributions could trigger a rollback in climate ambition. Already, high-level officials from Indonesia and Argentina have said that their countries are contemplating withdrawing from the Paris Agreement as a direct reaction to the US withdrawal.
Another massive hit for climate action was Trump’s shutdown of all USAID projects in the first week of February. As of February 23, all direct hires of the organization were put on administrative leave globally except for mission-critical posts, core leadership, and specially designated programs. About 1,600 personnel in the US will be laid off. USAID provides $40-$60 billion in foreign assistance per year, which accounts for 25 percent of global humanitarian aid. Many of these funds, in response to a 2022 Biden strategy, went to development projects that were climate-ready, as well as to renewable energy, conservation, and climate adaptation initiatives.
In Asia, for example, USAID sponsored auctions in the Philippines that led to the production of 5.4 gigawatts of solar and wind energy. USAID’s “Adapt Asia-Pacific” program facilitated green technology transfer and provided technical and financial assistance to increase resilience in selected Asia-Pacific countries, while the “Asia Resilient Cities” project addressed urban development challenges such as low-carbon infrastructure. The USAID “Lowering Emissions in Asia’s Forests” (LEAF) supported REDD+ strategy development in Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea. All these projects have now been terminated or suspended. Trump has also blocked federally employed scientists from participating in drafting the next IPCC report on the state of the warming world. Mass firings are expected at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the agency that provides data, tools, and information on climate change.
In terms of mitigation, the US withdrawal will significantly set back the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals. To the extent that the US fails to reduce emissions or increases them, other countries will have to make even greater reductions to slow the climate effects. President Trump’s energy policies will decelerate decarbonization pathways and could promote a domino-effect on other large economies. Under Trump’s first presidency in 2018, the US became the world’s largest oil producer and a net oil exporter for the first time since the 1940s. In the country’s first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, it committed an economy-wide target of reducing GHG emissions by 50-52 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 and achieving net-zero by 2050. As of 2022, the US had achieved only one-third of this commitment.
With President Trump’s new policies, even the marginal progress previously achieved may be reversed, and fulfilling US targets by 2030 or 2035 may be rendered impossible. In just the past month, he has allowed fast-track permits for new fossil fuel infrastructure, blocked all new offshore wind power development, rolled back electric vehicle targets, and reversed restrictions on petroleum extraction and exploration.
Pulling back on national adaptation action will be devastating to the US itself as it experiences weather and climate disasters at an unprecedented rate.
Pulling back on national adaptation action will be devastating to the US itself as it experiences weather and climate disasters at an unprecedented rate. In 2024, 27 weather and climate disasters were recorded in the US, including 17 severe storm events. This is a significant increase from the annual average of 8.5 events recorded from 1980-2023. According to World Weather Attribution, the devastating wildfires in California this year were caused by irregular wind conditions that were about 6 percent more intense than usual. Meanwhile, the administration is laying off large numbers of employees at the Environmental Protection Agency, which oversees the US national adaptation strategy, and Federal Emergency Management Agency, which coordinates disaster relief.
One bright spot is that other countries seem to be stepping up as the US withdraws from a leadership role in global climate action. The European Union, the African Group of Negotiators and the Least Developed Countries, among others, have reiterated their support for the Paris Agreement and international cooperation on climate. China, in a break from tradition, released information during COP 29 on its climate financing efforts. While China has yet to submit its new NDC (due February 10, 2025) and has repeatedly argued for maintaining the voluntary nature of financial contributions from developing countries, it is on track to achieve its commitment to peak emissions by 2030. In fact, current projections predict that it may do so as early as this year. China also has exponentially increased production of green energy equipment, driving down the costs of the green energy transition significantly. If China continues to step up, it will help fill the hole that the US leaves in the coming years.
Meanwhile, all eyes are on the International Court of Justice’ forthcoming Advisory Opinion on the Obligation of States in respect of Climate Change, which is set to come out this year. This advisory opinion will provide clarity on the duties of states and the legal consequences of noncompliance with climate obligations both within and outside the ambit of the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement.
One thing is for sure: climate change is happening and will only get worse in the years to come whether or not our governments and institutions are ready. One man must not be allowed to reverse decades of progress and obstruct climate action that is a matter of life or death for billions of people worldwide. How we respond at this critical point in history will be remembered for generations to come.
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Railla Puno is the associate lead of the Climate Change Law and Policy Programme at the Center for International Law, National University of Singapore.
Suggested citation:
Railla Puno, “Implications of the Trump Presidency for Global Climate Action,” USALI Perspectives, 5, No. 7, March 2, 2025, https://usali.org/usali-perspectives-blog/implications-of-the-trump-presidency-for-global-climate-action.
The views expressed in USALI Perspectives essays are those of the authors, and do not represent those of USALI or NYU.
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